03/19/2008

The Mayan 2012 Prophecy…Is the end coming?
By Doug Hemmick, Ph.D.

Among the recent trends in the new age arena is the "2012 prophecy" of the Mayan Indians. The Maya, an indigenous group which flourished in Mexico in the first millennium A.D. were quite sophisticated in their mathematics and their careful observations of the heavens. They applied their skills not just to follow and predict the seasons, but also to predicting celestial events. For example, archaeologists have found that the Mayans tabulated the motions of Venus to an accuracy of one day in 500 years. The Mayan calendar features a "beginning" and "end" date for the world and the end date translates into the present calendar as the year 2012.

The Mayan system of counting time does not make use of decades, centuries, millennia and so on. They did not use base ten arithmetic as we do today, but rather base twenty. Among the time scales appearing in the Maya calendar are baktuns (periods of 400 years), katuns (each twenty years), tuns (each 360 days) and some others. The largest time scale they considered was known as the "long count" which is 5,126 years. When the Maya calendar is converted to dates on the present calendar, it is noted that the beginning of the long count corresponds to 3114 B.C. and the end to 2012. Hence by the Mayan viewpoint, this world which sustains mankind began in 3114 B.C. and will come to an end in 2012 A.D.

Examining this prophecy more closely one could consider that 2012 will actually coincide with some type of worldwide change.  The easiest claim to refute is that the Mayan prophecy literally implies the destruction of the Earth. Since the Earth existed long before the beginning of the long count (August, 3114 B.C.), the end of the long count cannot be taken as indicating the end of the planet. The argument is made by some sources that the end of the long count marks a special time at which the Earth and sun will come into alignment with the center of the Milky Way galaxy, resulting in some sort of unusual physical effects on planet Earth.

While it is true that the Mayan celestial observations were extremely accurate, it strains credulity to imagine that they might have been aware of any such danger to our planet while the same thing has escaped the notice of the scientists of today. They have analyzed the structure of the galaxy with radio telescopes, detected the central concentration of stars and even what may be a central black hole. From their writings it is known that the Maya were not sophisticated enough to know the configuration of our solar system, with the Earth and other planets orbiting the sun. It seems a much better bet to take the word of present day scientists that there is no danger from any special celestial alignment in 2012.
Perhaps the only merit to the 2012 prediction is what people refer to as a "self-fulfilling prophecy." If an individual accepts that some changes will occur in that year, their actions and plans will reflect this and they will thereby help to bring about those things.

But there are several recent authors who ask their readers to take the 2012 prophecy much more seriously, including one book in particular by Daniel Pinchbeck: "2012." The method of his book is not to present a systematic argument to demonstrate the truth of the Mayan prediction. Rather, the author gives a diagnosis of the illnesses which he believes plague our society and relates his own personal journey to enlightenment as an analogy to the pathway to societal change. Pinchbeck interprets the Mayan prophecy not as a literal "end of the world," but as a transformation of society. He envisions a transformation from today's world of shortsighted, profit making misers to one of creative and open minded people living in harmony. This is not to say that the change will be a gentle one: Pinchbeck predicts economic and ecological crises and warfare, all of which will be survived only by those who have undergone his brand of enlightenment.

For reasons already discussed, Pinchbeck's book does little to assign any credibility to the Mayan 2012 Prophecy. First, he seems to ask far too much of his reader: enlightenment through African shaman rituals, use of psychedelic drugs, messages from aliens delivered by crop circles and visions and dreams of spiritual deities. He scoffs again and again at our society for failing to embrace these things.
Beyond this, the book is not satisfying even at the level of a new age work. Pinchbeck's argument is a completely anti-establishment one and has essentially no balance to it. There are some new age books which do not take such a negative approach, by rejecting so much of modern thinking and social systems. Instead they acknowledge the value of what we have, while suggesting some directions for change.

Perhaps the great granddad of the whole genre is the classic "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" by Robert Pirsig. Pirsig discusses his misgivings regarding pure rationalism, but he still recognizes mankind's progress: "From [primitive man's] agony of bare existence to modern life can be soberly described only as upward progress." By contrast, Pinchbeck affords the reader no admission of the value of modern society and in the eyes of many readers this detracts from his discussion.
Clearly there is much to be gained from studying other cultures such as the Maya. However it may be easy to lose oneself in the process, becoming an overzealous advocate for each and every discovery one makes. Understanding and valuing the strengths of today's culture might be a sensible prerequisite to a mature and honest assessment of another one.

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